Meteorologists say it’s very hard to predict the weather in Calgary
Before going outside on June 15, Soraya Karimy checked the air quality on her phone’s weather app. This season, smoke from wildfires in Western Canada has been blowing over the city many times.
Karimy’s gadget told her that the air quality was on the low end of moderate, which means that most people can breathe it safely. But when the retired engineer stepped outside, the sky was cloudy and the air was thick with smoke from wildfires.
“We went out, and I couldn’t breathe,” Karimy said. She also said that she got a headache right away.
According to data from the Calgary Region Airshed Zone, the air quality got worse quickly that day, with fine particulate matter levels reaching more than twice the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Guideline. Fine particulate matter is made up of small, harmful particles that can get deep into a person’s lungs.
Karimy was left wondering: Why didn’t the forecast say this would happen?
“Not only can they not tell the future, but they also don’t know what’s going on right now,” she said.
Meteorologists and weather experts say that their predictions have become more accurate over time, even though Calgary’s location makes it hard to predict the weather.
Some people also say that there is a gap between the information given on different platforms and how the public understands it, whether it’s from a quick look at an image on an app or from reading highly curated forecasts for a certain region.
Niche forecasters
Stephen Vandervalk, a farmer in Fort Macleod, about 150 km south of Calgary, has been unhappy with the way weather forecasts work for a long time.
The regional vice president of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association said that apps and organizations like Environment and Climate Change Canada can’t be trusted to make accurate predictions.
Vandervalk said, “They couldn’t tell it was going to rain if it was right in front of them.”
Vandervalk makes his living by predicting the weather, so he checks different weather apps and websites several times a day.
But he has come to rely on a private forecaster in the United States. He spends hundreds of dollars a year on the service, but he says the detailed forecasts are worth every penny.
He said, “They have a Prairies one that comes out every morning, and that one is much, much more accurate.”
These companies that let people pay for weather forecasts serve more than just farmers. Companies in industries ranging from aviation to renewable energy pay for detailed forecasting to help them make day-to-day business decisions.
A market researcher at Acumen says that the market for weather forecasting services will grow to more than $6 billion US over the next ten years.
Standing by the forecas
Vandervalk doesn’t trust Environment Canada’s rain forecasts, but he says the agency’s wind forecasts and radar have always been accurate.
Sara Hoffman, a meteorologist for Environment Canada, stands by the agency’s forecast for the area, but she says the Calgary area is “incredibly hard” to predict.
“I think the forecasts would be a lot more accurate if Calgary were just a little bit further east or west,” she said.
Hoffman said that the agency is open to criticism and suggestions, but she also said that the weather app on people’s phones is not from Environment Canada.
She said, “I think people think it’s all us.”
She also said that, in her opinion, other apps are “black boxes” when it comes to how they make their forecasts and what kind of modeling or information they use.
In a statement, Chris Scott, who is the head meteorologist for The Weather Network, said that forecasts are getting more accurate over time, at least for his company.
“The skill of our forecast meteorologists, who constantly look at the data, and the improvement of computer models mean that we should continue to see improvement in the years to come,” he said.
Scott also said that it’s hard to predict weather in the Calgary area.
“With the possible exception of Denver, Calgary has some of the biggest changes in weather from one day to the next of any city in North America,” he said.
Scott said that this is because the city is close to the Rocky Mountains but not near any large bodies of water, which would act as a balancing force.
“Because of its unique geography, low pressure systems like the well-known Alberta Clipper tend to form right over Alberta,” he said.
“Depending on where the jet stream is in a given month, the weather pattern can be different degrees of predictable.Also, since we tend to get more convective rain in the spring and summer, it can be hard to predict when it will rain. It’s like trying to guess which popcorn kernel will pop first.
A matter of perception 
Peter Neilley, who is the director of weather forecasting sciences for the US-based The Weather Company, said that how a forecast is understood can affect how accurate it is seen to be.
“Sometimes, your ability to make the right choice depends on how well you were told the information,” he said.
Neilley said that a farmer who uses a forecast service designed for agriculture might find that the work of that service is more accurate because it is made to fit the farmer’s needs.
“When you talk about the forecast in these terms, it can make you feel like it’s more accurate,” he said, even though the basic numbers might not be any different from a source that didn’t explain it in terms you could understand.
Neilley said that the science we have now gives us reliable odds for things like thunderstorms and rain showers.He did say, though, that some things, like the movement of smoke from wildfires, are especially hard to predict.
“Sometimes, just a few degrees in the direction the wind is blowing, which is probably beyond our ability to predict, can make all the difference,” he said.