Orrell is also a mathematician interested in prediction but, initially, it was of a different variety. "I had most of my experience [at that time] in weather forecasting and genetics - economics was the new one... because my background is in applied mathematics. I kind of looked at all of these types of predictions as mathematical models. We have a mathematical model of the weather, we have a mathematical model of how genes are expressed and we have a mathematical model of the economy."
It was in writing and researching his previous book about prediction (entitled Apollo's Arrow) that he recognized something strange about economics: Of all of the disciplines that use math, economics is the most resistant to mathematical innovation. "It's been totally out of touch with all of
By taking an archaeological survey of the discipline's roots, Orrell gets to the bottom of economics' theoretical tropophobia. At its root can be found Pythagoras, whose theorem gave us all triangular nightmares in school, I'm sure. The 10 chapters, into which the book is divided, reflect Pythagoras's 10 opposing principles: limited vs. unlimited, odd vs. even, etc. These dualities launched economics as a discipline. When the neoclassical era of economics developed and galvanized their theories, it was a different world - one that the discipline hasn't left yet, leaving dangerously short-sighted hegemonic relationships between the theories and the agents participating in the model. "Neoclassical theory just takes these 'economic agents' and averages all of them, but it ignores all of this rippling up from the bottom up and the top down - all of the complex structures go out the window," comments Orrell.
Dispelling fictions like "the efficient market" or the "average economic agent," Orrell begins the work of renovating economics in this book. By exposing the outdated, rusty undergirding of the discipline, he begins to apply mathematics that reflects both the advancements in math and the advancements of society since, well, Pythagoras. While the prose is not so pithy as to create the brisk read that our blogger generation craves, the exposition and insights are always pointed and clear. Although some of the examples he uses might be slightly outdated (Woodstock, Jimi Hendrix, etc.), he follows through with them well and is able to make his salient points. While it arrived too late to save Max Cohen, The Other Side of the Coin is making the case for complexity to a discipline that desperately needs it.
Your comment will be read by our approval team and, if it is approved, will be posted on the website within 24 hours. It could also be published, along with your name, in the printed version of Xpress magazine and on any of our partner websites. In order to present the highest quality of comments, Xpress reserves the right to refuse certain submissions. Any plagiarism will entail the entire removal of the member’s profile. Xpress is not responsible for the opinions expressed by the members.
